AGP Executive Report

Raúl Castro Indictment Fallout: Thousands of Cubans poured into Havana’s waterfront near the U.S. embassy to chant “Viva Raúl” after Washington unsealed charges tied to the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, with Cuban officials and state media framing it as an attack on sovereignty while the U.S. pushes harder rhetoric about possible military action. Pressure on GAESA Networks: In parallel, the U.S. escalated enforcement against Cuba-linked business figures, including ICE detention of GAESA chief Ania Guillermina Lastres Morera’s sister after Rubio revoked her green card. War Talk vs. Diplomacy: Rubio repeated that Cuba is a “national security threat” and hinted diplomacy is unlikely, while Trump said it “looks like I’ll be the one” to intervene—an echo of the Venezuela playbook, but experts warn Cuba has no clear “Delcy” successor. On the Ground in Cuba: The protests land amid daily strain—blackouts, fuel shortages, and a growing sense of uncertainty.

Cuba Crackdown Escalates: Trump and Rubio are openly floating military intervention again, just a day after the U.S. unsealed criminal charges against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown—while Rubio calls Havana a “national security threat” and says a peaceful deal is “not high.” Legal Pressure at Home: In Miami, ICE arrested Adys Lastres Morera, sister of GAESA’s top executive, revoking her green card as the administration targets Cuba’s military-linked economic network. Power Crisis Deepens: New reporting says Cuba is spending more hours in darkness than with electricity as fuel runs out and the blackout toll keeps climbing. Humanitarian Alarm: Non-Aligned Movement health ministers warn Cuba’s healthcare is being steadily undermined by prolonged U.S. restrictions, citing shortages that disrupt surgeries, cancer care, and maternal services. Opposition Organizing: Amelia Calzadilla launched a new classical liberal party in Madrid, pitching a future democratic transition beyond just denouncing the regime.

Cuba Pressure Turns Criminal: The U.S. unsealed charges against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro over the 1996 downing of two civilian planes flown by Miami-based exiles, with prosecutors alleging he helped order the attack—an escalation that’s already feeding fears of a wider U.S. move. Military Talk Back On: Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio both raised the specter of intervention again, while Rubio told Cubans the U.S. wants a “peaceful” negotiated path but doubts diplomacy can work with Havana. Independence-Day Messaging: Rubio’s video to Cubans blamed the regime’s elites and GAESA for shortages, while Cuba’s government condemned the indictment as political provocation. Regional Shockwaves: The case also arrives as the U.S. leans on sanctions and humanitarian pressure, and as Cuba braces for instability and migration concerns. Legal Fallout Beyond Havana: Separately, the U.S. Supreme Court revived a Helms-Burton-linked fight that could hit cruise lines tied to confiscated Cuban port property.

Castro Indictment Shock: The U.S. Justice Department has unsealed federal murder and conspiracy charges against 94-year-old Raúl Castro over the 1996 “Brothers to the Rescue” shootdown that killed four Americans, with prosecutors saying he authorized the MiG-29 intercepts. The indictment was announced in Miami on Cuban Independence Day, and the case names five Cuban pilots as well—raising the stakes for Washington’s “maximum pressure” push. Military Pressure: As the legal move landed, the U.S. deployed the Nimitz carrier strike group to the Caribbean, signaling a harder posture alongside the indictment. Cuba’s Pushback: Cuba’s leadership called it a political maneuver with no legal basis, while opposition voices framed it as a potential turning point. Human Cost at Home: Amid the geopolitical fight, Cuba also faces daily strain—energy disruptions hitting schools and healthcare—while Havana’s inclusive “Liva” café highlights how some communities keep building opportunities anyway.

DOJ Escalation on Cuba: The U.S. unsealed criminal charges against 94-year-old former Cuban leader Raúl Castro, accusing him of ordering the 1996 shootdown of two civilian planes operated by Miami-based Brothers to the Rescue—charges include murder and destruction of aircraft, with five Cuban military pilots also indicted. Acting AG Todd Blanche said the case targets the deaths of four Americans and that a warrant was issued, raising the stakes for how far Washington will push. Diplomacy as Pressure: Hours around Cuba’s Independence Day, Secretary of State Marco Rubio offered a “new relationship” while blaming GAESA for Cuba’s shortages and blackouts, and Cuba’s foreign minister rejected the U.S. narrative as lies. Florida Reacts: South Florida lawmakers and exile communities in places like Little Havana’s Café Versailles cheered the move, framing it as overdue justice and a turning point in U.S.-Cuba relations.

Raúl Castro Indictment Looms: The U.S. is expected to announce criminal charges against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro tied to the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, a move sources say follows a grand jury process and is set to be unveiled Wednesday in Miami—while Havana warns of escalation and the Trump administration keeps tightening sanctions and an oil blockade. Fuel Crisis at Home: Cuba says its reserves are “completely exhausted,” with blackouts and shortages hitting daily life and healthcare, even as the U.S. floats a reported $100 million humanitarian aid offer that Cuba says should come with lifting the embargo. Political Prisoner Death: In Cuba, legal groups report that 11J protester Ernesto Brieva Sempé died in custody in “severe malnutrition,” with officials’ cause of death still unclear. U.S. Pressure Strategy: The indictment talk lands alongside fresh sanctions on Cuban security figures, keeping the focus on pressure rather than diplomacy.

Cuba-US Tensions: Cuba’s Díaz-Canel is calling the U.S. “collective punishment” and an “act of genocide” after fresh sanctions, while Havana warns any U.S. attack would mean a “bloodbath” and rejects claims it has acquired hundreds of drones. Financial Crackdown: Cuba also authorized freezing bank accounts and assets without notice, targeting people it labels as tied to “terrorism,” as Washington tightens pressure on Cuban security-linked officials. Humanitarian Pressure: A ship by Open Arms docked in Malaga to raise money for solar panels for a Havana children’s hospital—another sign of how power outages are driving international aid efforts. Health Fallout: A new CEPR report links the 2017 sanctions escalation to a sharp jump in Cuba’s infant mortality, arguing thousands of infant deaths could have been avoided. Border Crime: In Texas, a trucker was charged after a locked trailer held 42 migrants in extreme heat, including people from Cuba.

Sanctions + War Rhetoric Escalate: Cuba’s president Miguel Díaz-Canel warned a U.S. attack would trigger a “bloodbath,” as Washington moved to sanction Cuba’s intelligence and security-linked leadership and agencies. The spike follows fresh U.S. claims about Cuba acquiring 300+ drones and drawing up plans targeting U.S. sites, with Havana calling the accusations a pretext for aggression. Humanitarian Relief Arrives: Amid the standoff, a Mexico- and Uruguay-backed aid ship docked in Havana with hygiene items and staples, with Cuba saying distribution will prioritize children, the elderly, and vulnerable families. Health Under Pressure: A new CEPR report links the tightening of U.S. sanctions since 2017 to a sharp rise in Cuba’s infant mortality—up 148% from 2018 to 2025—arguing the current fuel blockade is worsening conditions. Local Life, Still in the Dark: Havana residents describe life returning to street-level problem-solving as power outages and fuel shortages keep disrupting daily routines, including university work.

US-Cuba Tensions Escalate: Cuba’s President Miguel Díaz-Canel is warning that any American attack would “trigger a bloodbath,” as Washington ramps up pressure with new sanctions aimed at Cuba’s intelligence leadership and as US media claims Havana has acquired 300+ drones and is weighing strikes on Guantánamo. Diplomatic Pushback: Cuba’s foreign minister Bruno Rodríguez says the US is building a “fraudulent case” to justify aggression, while Cuba insists it poses no threat. Humanitarian Relief Arrives: Amid the standoff, a Mexico-and-Uruguay aid ship has docked in Havana with food and hygiene supplies, Cuba says it will prioritize children and vulnerable families. Rights and Accountability: The US Justice Department is reportedly considering indicting Raúl Castro over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, a case tied to a Miami-based exile group. OAS on Reproductive Exploitation: The OAS took a historic stand recognizing trafficking for “reproductive exploitation,” highlighting how coercion can include forced abortions.

Cuba–US Tensions Spike: Cuba says the Trump administration’s drone-attack claims are “increasingly implausible,” as Washington leans on alleged classified intelligence to justify pressure while the island’s oil blockade keeps worsening daily life. Humanitarian Fallout: UN officials warn blackouts and fuel shortages are forcing hospitals to suspend surgeries, delay care, and ration medicines—leaving more than 100,000 patients waiting. Diplomatic Theater: In Rome, the Vatican held a Mass for Peace and Development dedicated to Cuba, pushing back against sanctions and “foreign interference.” Legal Pressure on Havana: The week’s drumbeat also includes reports that the US is preparing charges tied to the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, with Raúl Castro in the crosshairs. Local Reality Check: Even in Matanzas, people are walking to the few working telecom spots just to connect at night as power cuts drag on.

Drone-attack claims vs. Cuba: Cuba’s embassy says the Trump administration’s latest allegations about “plans” for drone attacks are an “increasingly implausible” pretext for war, as Washington points to classified claims that Havana has hundreds of drones and is weighing strikes on Guantánamo, U.S. vessels, and Key West. Healthcare under strain: The UN warns Cuba’s hospitals are suspending surgeries and struggling with power, fuel, and medicine shortages—blackouts can last up to 20 hours, and more than 100,000 patients are waiting for delayed procedures. Raúl Castro in the spotlight: The U.S. is reportedly preparing to indict Raúl Castro over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, with charges expected to be unveiled soon in Miami. Pressure meets protest: Amid the energy collapse and rolling blackouts, Cuba is also cutting transport services—fewer train trips and limited bus departures—while Cubans push back as daily life tightens. Regional ripple: In the Bahamas, 107 Haitians were deported in a new enforcement operation.

Fuel Crisis, Mobility Cuts: Cuba’s Transportation Ministry says it’s slashing passenger services—trains to once every two weeks and Havana-to-province buses to three trips weekly—while prioritizing fuel, food, medicine, and export goods, with electric tricycles and “eco-cars” pushed as substitutes. Healthcare Under Strain: UN officials warn blackouts and shortages are disrupting hospitals nationwide, forcing surgery suspensions and delaying care for more than 100,000 patients. US Pressure, Cuba’s “Red Lines”: Cuba’s chargé d’affaires tells Washington sovereignty is non-negotiable as the US ramps up pressure; Havana also rejects the idea that aid is a political trade. Aid Offer Sparks Clash: Cuba says it will consider the US’s $100m offer but insists the decades-long blockade must end first. CIA Visit and Raúl Castro Indictment Talk: CIA Director John Ratcliffe met Cuban interior/security leadership in Havana, while US media reports DOJ is preparing to indict Raúl Castro over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown. Tensions Rise: Cubans are preparing for “invasion” scenarios as the island’s collapse deepens.

Cuba’s fuel crisis turns into a healthcare emergency: UN officials warn blackouts and shortages are forcing hospitals to suspend surgeries, disrupting blood banks and immunizations, and leaving more than 100,000 patients waiting for care. U.S.-Cuba pressure escalates: Cuba says it has run out of oil while the Trump administration formalizes a $100M humanitarian aid offer via the Catholic Church—an offer Havana says it will “listen to” but frames as tied to coercion. CIA visit amid looming legal threats: CIA Director John Ratcliffe is reported in Havana as U.S. prosecutors prepare to indict Raúl Castro over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown. Human cost inside Cuba: A Christian teenager is jailed after peaceful protests, with advocates alleging he’s been denied urgent treatment. Elsewhere, migration crackdown echoes: Bahamas deported 107 Haitians, and a Cuban unlicensed driver in Florida is set to be turned over to ICE.

Energy Crisis Hits Breaking Point: Havana protests erupted as Cuba’s grid suffered another collapse and residents faced power cuts up to 22 hours, with the government blaming a U.S. “energy blockade” after Venezuela’s oil supply was disrupted. CIA Pressure in Havana: CIA Director John Ratcliffe met Cuban security officials in a rare, high-signal visit—framed by Washington as “engagement” tied to “fundamental changes,” and read by many as pressure amid the blackout spiral. Aid Offer, With Strings Alleged: Cuba’s foreign minister says the U.S. has formally offered $100M in humanitarian aid via a State Department communiqué, but Havana insists it must be free of political maneuvering and urges de-escalation of the blockade. Legal Threat Looms: U.S. reporting says Washington may seek to indict Raúl Castro over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue plane shootdowns, a move families call long overdue. Diplomatic Red Lines: Díaz-Canel and Bruno Rodríguez warn that sovereignty is non-negotiable as talks intensify and fears of escalation grow.

Cuba Energy Crisis: Cuba’s grid suffered a partial collapse and the island is now officially out of fuel, with blackouts hitting 20–22 hours in Havana and protests flaring as people bang pots and demand lights. CIA Pressure: Hours after the fuel admission, CIA chief John Ratcliffe made a rare Havana visit for talks with Cuban security leaders, signaling a “deal” tied to political and economic changes. US Legal Threat: Washington is also reportedly moving toward indicting Raúl Castro over the 1996 shootdown of civilian planes—raising the stakes while diplomacy is underway. Humanitarian Fallout: Cuba says it’s willing to receive international aid, but the crisis is worsening fast, with shortages and unrest spreading as transportation and daily life break down. Florida & Immigration: Separate from Cuba, Florida immigrant families and detention-related deaths keep spotlighting the broader chaos around US enforcement.

Energy Crisis Escalates: Cuba’s government says it has “absolutely no” fuel oil and diesel left, as blackouts and protests spread across Havana and beyond, with hospitals and schools disrupted. US-Cuba Pressure Talks: In the middle of the collapse, CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a rare Havana trip, meeting top Cuban officials including “Raulito,” while Washington signals it wants “fundamental changes” in exchange for engagement. Aid Deal Turns Political: Cuba initially called the US $100M humanitarian offer a “fable,” but later accepted it—reportedly routed through the Catholic Church—while still accusing the US of using hardship as leverage. Prisoner Releases Signal Leverage: Political prisoner Sissi Abascal Zamora arrived in Miami with family after release tied to US pressure and talks. Legal Threat Looms: The US is also weighing indicting Raúl Castro over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, ratcheting tensions as the energy emergency peaks.